Romanian election 2024: how resonance beat spend

The Romanian election 2024 was not only a national story. It was a lesson in how attention now decides outcomes. A pro Russian populist reached the first round lead by mastering the rules of attention, not by rewriting the rules of politics.

Yes, there was very probably illegal media buying by Georgescu’s Russian patrons. They’ve got very good at using digital marketing to weaponise the polarisation that the digital platforms have bestowed on us.

But the key point here is that you can spend billions promoting messages, but if the messages don’t work, they still don’t fly.

Georgescu’s messages worked for frustrated and disenfranchised Romanians. He understood them, he connected with them and he showed them a vision for a better future.

So how can centrist, pro-EU parties counter that?

We can tell people how great we are, but if they don’t see that as a reality that touches their lives, then in their minds we’re dishonest, corrupt and nepotistic (as this majority voter block in Romania sees its current government).

Policy is extremely hard to communicate. It’s boring and complex. Georgescu is competing against that with simple promises and he can’t be judged on his actions.

But it is very possible for pro-EU centrists to communicate much, much more effectively. By employing private sector techniques to understand and map the maximum optimal audiences (instead of just the people who already like what they do) and by using AB experimentation to continue to increase the effectiveness of their messaging with these key persuadable audiences, they can win support away from populists like Georgescu.

And yes, these would be exactly the same techniques that the trolls use (not the illegal media buying, nor any other kind of illegality, obviously).

There’s a lot of concern about the decline in democracy, but few people seem to know what to do about it. The way to safeguard democracy is clear. There’s endless data already that shows how centrists can better connect with voters. But until we start using digital media with the same level of sophistication as our opponents, we’ll continue to lose.